Harvard professor and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff has acknowledged that his 2018 prediction—Bitcoin was more likely to sink to $100 than climb to $100,000—proved badly off the mark
Harvard professor and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff has acknowledged that his 2018 prediction—Bitcoin was more likely to sink to $100 than climb to $100,000—proved badly off the mark. In a post on 19 August he said the cryptocurrency’s resilience and recent rally to about $113,000 forced him to revisit the assumptions behind that call.
Rogoff said he had been “far too optimistic” about U.S. regulators imposing strict rules on trading and tax enforcement that might have curbed demand. He also underestimated the pace at which investors would treat Bitcoin as a hedge and a competitive store of value, and misjudged the depth of its global user base, including cross-border payments that bypass traditional banking rails.
The economist’s mea culpa comes as Bitcoin ranks among the world’s largest assets by market value and continues to draw institutional buyers. His remarks underscore the broader shift in mainstream finance, where universities, pension funds and corporations now hold positions in digital assets that many academics and policymakers once dismissed.
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